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joaquinmonfort - 04/07/2012 10:34 PM
#1
Forex4you trading signals and analysis
Hello KASKUS Traders, my name is Joaquin Monfort and I am a Forex Analyst with the international brokerage firm Forex4you, which has many clients from Indonesia. I have joined your community to post my analysis and trading recommendations so that I can share my view of the markets with you and also hopefully get some feedback.

I hope you find my work useful and profit from my tips the first of which I have posted below for the USD/JPY.

Happy trading,

Kind rgds,

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you
http://www.forex4you.co.id/
joaquinmonfort - 04/07/2012 11:10 PM
#2

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is currently finding support at the trend-line for the move up from the 1st June lows. It has been consolidating at the current level due to low trading volume because of the 4th July holiday. It will probably bounce from here and rally up to 80.30 or the 100-day MA at 80.55. The other (less likely) possibility is that the pair will break down through the trend-line and target the 78.80 lows.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
Zaretha - 05/07/2012 10:49 AM
#3

Welcome aboard mr Joaquin! \)

For successful trading in forex, trading signals and analysis is very important to get our profit target and minimize the risk. Feel free to post your analysis and your review may become our preference especially for kaskus community and forex4you client when they start trading in forex.

FYI, info lengkap tentang analisa teknikal dan fundamental dari forex4you bisa dibaca lebih lengkap DISINI

Update Informasi dan review forex4you Indonesia bisa dibuka disini :

[CODE]http://www.kaskus.co.id/showthread.php?t=14722050[/CODE]

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
FX4UPartnership - 05/07/2012 02:06 PM
#4
FX4U Partnership
Hi all,

Thank you for choosing Forex4you as your Forex Broker.

I am IB Coordinator for Asia. For the trader who are interested to be an IB please contact me through email or YM. I will be glad to help you to be a successful IB.

Contact me today!

Email : [email]fx4u.partnership@yahoo.com[/email]
YM : fx4u.partnership
eninefx - 05/07/2012 02:15 PM
#5

Here is trading signals and analysist thread or fully broker promotion? bingung:

If just broker promotion, you enter wrong room/sub forum p
FX4UPartnership - 05/07/2012 03:53 PM
#6

Ops.. if then ... im so sorry about this.
joaquinmonfort - 05/07/2012 04:54 PM
#7

FX news and analysis 4th July

USD

The dollar rose on Wednesday although not by a large margin, as most pairs remained range-bound due to low holiday volume because of the 4th of July day-off in the states. Nevertheless the greenback continued to strengthen steadily as expectations of a rate cut at the ECB's monthly rate meeting gathered momentum and led to weakness in the euro whilst the pound was hit by lower-than-expected Services PMI. The BOE is also expected to announce an increase in its QE programme on Thursday which weighed on the pound. The slow week is expected to continue as many workers in the U.S will have taken the rest of the week off. As far as the economic calendar looks there are the rate meeting's on Thursday and a high profile Spanish bond auction. ADP Employment Change and non-manufacturing ISM on Thursday are quite significant but the main release will be Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

EUR

The euro weakened on Wednesday as speculation heightened that the ECB would cut its lending rate at its monthly meeting and concerns increased that borrowing costs for Spain might increase at an auction of 10-year bonds scheduled for Thursday. On the economic data front Euro-zone Services PMI rose to 47.1 from 46.8 previously; Composite PMI rose to 46.4 from 46.0 previously; German Services PMI fell to 49.9 from 50.3; French Services rose to 47.9 from 47.3 and Italian rose to 43.1 from 42.8 when a fall to 42.5 had been expected. Italy's deficit to Gross National Product widened to 8.0% in the first quarter compared to 7% at the same time in the previous year. The report showed that spending rose 1.3% from the previous year whilst revenues dropped 1.0%. Euro-zone Retail Sales failed to recover as much as expected, posting a -1.7% print vs a -1.0% expected result from -3.4% at the same time last year. Month-on-month, however it rose by 0.6% when it had been expected to remain at 0.0% and fell -1.4% in the previous month.

GBP

The pound traded lower on Wednesday after Services PMI in June fell to 51.3 from 53.3 when a fall to 52.9 had been expected. There was also pressure from expectations of more easing at the Bank of England rate meeting on Thursday; the minutes from the last meeting showed a very close vote on whether to increase stimulus and Governor King's doviesh commentary all point to a strong possibility of more stimulus being announced. Further data showed BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal decreased by -8.8bn vs -8.6bn in the previous quarter and -8.0bn expected. The data showed an increase in money being used to pay off existing mortgages versus money being borrowed from re-mortgaging - probably due to a slowdown in house price inflation and fears over the outlook for jobs and the economy. Data also showed a rise in Official Reserves to $914m in June when they had been -$1308m previously.

JPY

The yen strengthened versus riskier assets after risk appetite faltered ahead of key monetary policy meetings on Thursday at which it is expected policy-makers will announce looser policy measures. This resulted in a rise in safe-haven demand which supported the yen. In Europe, continued instability caused by Greece wanting to renegotiate its bailout conditions and countless divisions between member states as to how best to tackle the crisis – with a split materializing broadly into two opposing camps of austerity vs deeper union, also weighed on sentiment. There is not much major economic news for the yen as the week starts to wind down but the ECB and BOE meetings tomorrow will affect those pairs and the relationship and rivalry with the dollar will be affected by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
joaquinmonfort - 05/07/2012 05:08 PM
#8

EUR/USD: continuing weakness

Eurodollar continues to edge back down and has now passed below the cluster of pivots and MAs around 1.2560. It has reached the 61.8% retracement of the previous spike up and it could begin to reverse and move higher again from here although support-turned-resistance at around 1.2550 may be a barrier. A move below the 74.6% Fibonacci level at 1.2474 would prove key as it would mark the capitulation of bullish bets and accelerate further downside to 1.2400.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 05/07/2012 07:38 PM
#9

AUD/USD: technical analysis

The aussie is still rising and has broken above the 100-day MA. There is a strong possibility the move higher will continue until long-term resistance at 1.0370 and then perhaps the top of the channel at 1.0430. However, momentum is diverging and MACD turning down so there is also the possibility of weakness or more sideways movement, with the 100-day at 1.0250 featuring prominently as a target and then the lower channel line at 1.0130.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 05/07/2012 09:45 PM
#10

EUR/GBP: channel breakout

The EUR/GBP pair has definitively broken out of its rising channel and has started falling. It has stopped temporarily at the level of the monthly pivot at 0.7975 and whilst there is a chance of a short-term bounce to 0.8005 after that it will probably resume its descent. The next target down are the old lows at 0.7950 and then the target from the channel breakout at 0.7905.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 06/07/2012 01:39 AM
#11

FX news and analysis 5th July

USD

The dollar rose on Thursday after three major international central banks eased their monetary policies and employment data from the U.S was substantially better-than-expected. The BOE increased their asset purchases by 50bn, the ECB lowered its deposit rate to 0.0% and the Peboc lowered both its lending rate by 0.31% and its deposit rate by 0.25%. On the data front ADP Employment Change (June) rose to 176k from 136k previously – beating estimates of a drop to 100k. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 30 fell by 14k which was more than the moderate 3k expected. Continuing Claims rose 4k versus 2k expected fall. Challenger Job Cuts yoy in June fell by -9.4% compared to 66.7% rise previously. Other data showed a fall in the Non-Manufacturing sector, with the ISM Index dropping further than expected to 52.1 from 53.7 previous and below the 53.0 expected.

EUR

The euro plummeted on Thursday after the ECB decided to reduce its base lending rate by 0.25% and its overnight deposit rate to zero at its monthly rate meeting. Whilst a reduction had been widely anticipated the deposit rate reduction had not – and was widely seen as reflecting a worrying tightening in inter-bank liquidity. ECB President Mario Draghi said the downside risks to the region were 'materializing' which further weighed. The euro also fell versus the pound even though the BOE increased QE at its rate meeting as it was widely believed the challenges faced by the euro-zone are worse than those faced by the U.K. Other data showed a fall in German Factory Orders to -5.4% from -3.4% when an even deeper drop to -6.0% was expected. Month-on-month, however, they rose 0.6% when 0.0% had been expected and -1.4% was the previous month's print.

GBP

The pound fell on Thursday as a result of the BOE monthly policy meeting announcing an increase quantitative easing (QE) by raising the target for its asset purchases by 50bn, from 325bn to 375bn. Sterling actually rallied immediately after the news, which was surprising given the fact that QE would normally be expected to dilute the currency, however it soon rolled over and began to fall later in the day. It is possible the pound will fall even further if it becomes apparent the BOE were prompted in their actions by a particularly dire assessment of the economy rather than fears of a worsening of the crisis in Europe. Other data showed a rise month-on-month in House Prices from a survey by lender Halifax, which revealed a 1.0% rise in June. 3mo-on-3mo showed a fall of -0.5% although this was not as much as the -0.8% expected.

JPY

The yen traded mixed on Thursday, gaining against the euro and the pound after both these currencies' central banks eased their monetary policies but falling versus the dollar which strengthened on better-than-expected employment data. The ECB reduced its base lending rate by 0.25% and its deposit rate to 0.0% and the BOE's MPC increased QE by 50bn. In the states ADP Employment Change in June, which is often seen as a good forewarning of Non-Farm Payrolls, actually rose by 40k when it had been expected to fall by 36k, which decreased expectations of easing in the U.S. On the data front Tokyo Average Office Vacancies in June rose by 9.43% compared to 9.40% previously. Data out on Friday includes the Leading Index and the Coincident Index, however, the yen will probably be more influenced by the Non-Farm Payrolls data in the U.S, for which a positive result is expected. If it is especially low then the yen could rally as the dollar suffers from increased QE expectations.
Zaretha - 06/07/2012 10:42 AM
#12

ECB akhirnya memangkas tingkat suku bunga sebesar 0,25 % sesuai ekspektasi dan prediksi menjadi 0.75% menyebabkan euro terkoreksi tajam yang juga di ikuti oleh Emas.

Pound jatuh pada hari Kamis sebagai hasil dari pertemuan kebijakan bulanan BOE yang mengumumkan sebuah pengurangan peningkatan kuantitatif (QE) dengan menaikkan target untuk pembelian aset dari 325bn menjadi 375bn.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 06/07/2012 05:22 PM
#13

EUR/USD: bearish continuation

Eurodollar has now corrected back 76.4% of the whole counter-trend rally in June and looks poised to resume its descent and re-touch the major 1.2287 lows. Currently it is consolidating on the monthly S1 pivot but if it breaks lower than it could even target the lower channel line of 2012's fall at 1.2180. It's less likely, but if it recovers it could bounce back up towards the 1.2450 mark.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 06/07/2012 07:40 PM
#14

EUR/JPY: trend-line break

The EUR/JPY pair has temporarily broken down below the trend-line of the June rally. If it continues and breaks 98.30 that will offer further bearish confirmation, signalling a possible resumption of the broader down-trend. The next target lower is the pivot at 97.15 followed by the previous lows at 95.58. If the pair reverses and bounces higher than the first upside target would be at the monthly pivot and the underside of the trend-line at 99.40.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 07/07/2012 01:56 AM
#15

FX news and analysis 6th July

USD

The dollar rose against riskier currencies on Friday but fell against the yen after Non-Farm Payrolls for June came out lower than expected showing only an increase of only 80k new jobs when a 100k rise had been expected. Nevertheless the report contained 'silver-linings' such as the increase in Average Hours Worked to 34.5 from 34.4 and an increase in Average Hourly Earnings of 2.0% yoy vs 1.7% expected and 0.3% mom when 0.2% had been expected, and this helped support the dollar versus the euro and the pound. The previous month's print was also revised up to 77k and the Unemployment Rate remained the same at 8.2%. Private Payrolls reflected the overall figure by also under-hitting estimates of of 106k by 22k; the Underemployment Rate rose by 1 basis point to 14.9% compared to 14.8% previously; Manufacturing Payrolls Increased more than expected by 11k vs 7k forecast and 9k previous. Finally Change in Household Employment in June fell to 128 from 422 previously.

EUR

The euro fell to new lows on Friday after Spanish borrowing costs rose back up to the 7.0% danger zone on interbank liquidity fears sparked by the ECB's unprecedented move to decrease the overnight deposit rate to zero in the hope it would deter banks from parking money with it and spur them to lend to each other more. Risk appetite was also hit by U.S data showing lacklustre hiring in June when yesterday's ADP figure had increased expectations of a positive print. Other data from the euro-zone showed an upbeat print for German Industrial Production, which showed no-change in May when it had been expected to fall -1.2%. Month-on-month it rose by 1.6% from the 0.2% rise estimated and -2.1% in April. Other data showed a slight reduction in the French Trade Balance but an increase in the size of the French Central Government deficit.

GBP

The pound fell against most counter-parts on Friday although versus the euro it rose strongly after risk appetite plummeted amidst euro-zone banking fears, rising peripheral borrowing costs and poor U.S data. The recent increase in quantitative easing (QE) by the BOE at its July rate meeting also weighed on sterling as it was expected to dilute the pound. On the data front Friday saw the release of Factory Gate inflation with the Producer Price Index data for June. PPI Output Core showed a 2.0% rise yoy in line with expectations – although still less than the 2.6% print of the previous month. PPI Input yoy June fell more than expected by -2.3% when a -2.2% drop had been forecast. Lower inflationary pressures were in line with the recent doviesh BOE assessment of the economy and the change in monetary policy to embrace more QE enacted at the last MPC.

JPY

The yen rose on Friday after poor employment data in the U.S shocked many investors who had been expecting a stronger figure after the better-than-expected ADP Employment Change and Jobless figures data on Thursday set up expectations for a positive NFP result. The yen further strengthened after Spanish benchmark borrowing costs rose to above the 7.0% danger level on bank liquidity fears sparked by the ECB's move to reduce its interest paid on deposits to zero to encourage inter-bank lending. On the data front the Leading Index (May) rose to 95.9 from 95.6 when 95.0 had been expected. The Coincident Index (May) fell to 95.8 from 97.0, and Official Reserve Assets in June moderated a little to 1270.6bn yen from 1277.7bn.
joaquinmonfort - 09/07/2012 05:57 PM
#16

EUR/USD: continuation down

The sell-off last week was very heavy and it will probably continue to make lower lows. The next target down is at the 1.2200 level and then 1.2166 which is a Fibonacci extension of the current move. If there is a rebound it will probably reach resistance from the old down-sloping channel line on the 4hr chart at 1.2325 before resuming its bearish trend lower.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 09/07/2012 08:11 PM
#17

AUD/USD: finding support

The aussie has fallen and reached support from the lower channel line of the move up from the 1st of June. It will probably bounce and re-touch the 1.0330 highs but in the absence of a strong reversal pattern we remain neutral. The other possibility is that it accelerates to the downside and breaks out of the channel, targeting first support at 1.0025 and then the breakout target at 0.9800.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 09/07/2012 10:06 PM
#18

USD/JPY: trend-line break

The USD/JPY pair has broken down through the trend-line drawn from the June lows and it looks set to fall lower. A break below support clustered at 79.30 should see a run down to 78.60 as bulls capitulate. There is an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at the lows, however, which despite light volume on the right shoulder, nevertheless could signal more upside - with a break of the neckline at 79.77 leading to a short run to the target at 80.10, which is also in the vicinity of the just-broken trend-line.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 10/07/2012 05:46 AM
#19

FX news and analysis 9th July

USD

The dollar ended slightly lower on Monday after doveish commentary from Fed speakers left the door open to more QE. There was commentary from Chicago Fed's Evans who said he thought the central bank should be doing more to lower unemployment because of the long-term negative effects of high unemployment on the economy. Evans said: “I support using the balance sheet to provide more accommodation.” Friday's payroll figures were 20k lower than expected and the unemployment rate remained at 8.2% stoking concerns about an economic slowdown. The Fed views an unemployment rate of between 5-6% as consistent with full-time employment and current data is still far from the mark. Both Evans and Boston Fed's Eric Rosengren voiced their concern that hiring had not picked-up as quickly as hoped.

EUR

The euro recovered on Monday as hopes that a meeting of euro-zone Finance Ministers in Brussels would yield measures which might help the region to overcome the debt crisis helped reduced bearish bets and bolstered optimism. One measure on the agenda was a form of banking union which would allow banks to directly tap the ESM for emergency funding whilst there were also talks about helping Spain more directly. On the data front the German Trade Balance (May) rose to 15.3 when a fall of 4 bps to 14.1 had been expected. The German Current Account in May fell to 9.0bn vs 10.2bn expected and 11.0bn previous. German Exports increased by 3.9% when a rise to 0.2% had been expected vs -1.7% previous. However imports also rose to 6.3% when a 0.8% rise had been anticipated and -4.9% previous. The euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Survey came out at 26.6 in line with expectations and showing a slight recovery on the -28.9 of the previous month of June.

GBP

The pound strengthened on Monday after risk appetite recovered on renewed optimism that a summit of euro-zone finance ministers could flesh out details on new proposals to create banking supervision for direct funding of major banks from the ESM. Sterling also rose against the euro because of continued high borrowing costs for Spain which remained over 7.0%. On the data front more housing data will be published on Monday night, including the important Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors' House Price Balance which is expected to show a negative result of -16.0%, the same as the June figure. The British Retail Consortium's like-for-like sales in June is expected to see a rise to 2.0% from 1.3%. The Lloyds Employment Index for June showed a -51 result compared to -59 previously.

JPY

The yen weakened as a result of upbeat sentiment over the meeting of Finance Ministers in Brussels and poor Japanese trade data. Against the greenback, it rose as a result of doveish commentary from Fed officials concerned about the stubbornly high unemployment rate. Machine Orders fell by -14.8% mom in May, when only a modest -2.6% fall had been expected from 5.7% previously. Year-on-year it increased by 1.0% but this was much lower than the 7.0% rise expected. The Trade Balance in May showed a deepening of the deficit -848.2bn yen when an -836.8bn fall had been expected from -436.9bn previously. The Current Account Total in May fell to 215.1bn yen when a rise to 493.1bn had been anticipated, from a 333.8bn previous result: year-on-year this was a fall of -62.6%, which was much more than the -13.6bn expected. The Eco-watchers sentiment survey showed a much deeper-than-expected fall to 43.8 from 47.5 expected and 47.2 previous. The 'Outlook' component fell 2.4 basis points to 45.7. Bankruptcies in June fell by -16.2% yoy vs 7.2% previous.
PacMan.. - 10/07/2012 06:20 AM
#20

wah bahasa inggris
i dont understand mister
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