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Zaretha - 10/07/2012 03:53 PM
#21

Quote:
Original Posted By PacMan..
wah bahasa inggris
i dont understand mister


Beliau analyst forex4you dari UK gan...\) langsung aja kalo mo tanya2 soal analisa teknikal ato isu2 fundamental lainnya disini, nanti ane bantu sundul..biar segera di jawab..Yb

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 10/07/2012 05:54 PM
#22

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The EUR/USD is still correcting back higher and is close to the underside of the down-sloping trend-line on the 4-hr chart situated at 1.2320. Substantial selling is likely at that level and this may push the exchange rate lower, perhaps back down to the 1.2255 lows again, or the stronger down-trend may begin again and target 1.2200. A break back above the trend-line however would target 1.2345 first and then perhaps even higher as weak bearish hands swiftly capitulate.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 10/07/2012 07:36 PM
#23

EUR/JPY: potential double-bottom

The EUR/JPY had been falling but has now formed a double-bottom at the lows which is bullishly converging with momentum. This could signal a recovery bounce with a break above 97.94 - the 76.4% Fibonacci level of the previous down-move – showing bulls are in control, and then a break of 98.15 opening the way to expansion up to 98.90 as the double bottom plays out. The target is also at the level of a trend-line and a weekly pivot so would be expected to exert resistance. More downside, on the other hand, finds support at the monthly pivot at 97.15.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 11/07/2012 03:51 AM
#24

FX news and analysis 10th July

USD

The dollar rose on Tuesday after data showing a slide in Chinese exports led to fears of a global slowdown. Exports rose by 11.3% in June vs 15.23% in 2011. Whilst thiswas not as low as the 10.6% expected it partially confirmed fears China was not growing at the same clip as before. A more upbeat assessment of the economy by St Louis Fed's Bullard also helped support the dollar on Tuesday. Bullard said he expected growth to pick up in the U.S in the second half of 2012 despite the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis and recent poor Non-Farm Payrolls. Other data included JOLTS Job Openings, which rose to 3642 in May from 3447 in the previous month. NFIB Small Business Optimism fell more than expected to 91.4 when it had been expected to drop to 93.3 from 94.4. IBD/TIPP Business Optimism in July rose to 47.0 from 46.7 when 46.9 had been expected.

EUR

The euro fell on Tuesday despite the news that E.U officials were speeding up the release of 30bn euros to help support Spain's distressed banks. Market participants judged the measures as disappointing, possibly because they were seen as only the first of many bailouts. Bond markets eased on the news but this was not reflected in the euro which weakened. On the data front, the focus was on Industrial and Manufacturing production which showed a slowdown in France but rise in Italy. French Industrial Production (May) fell -3.5% versus -1.6% in 2011. Italian Industrial Production also fell but at a slower pace of -6.8% versus -12.0% in the previous year showing possible sign tthe recession was easing; meanwhile month-on-month, the French data showed a -1.9% fall vs -1.0% expected and Italian data rose 0.8% when a -0.6% result had been expected. French Manufacturing also slowed by -4.3% vs -2.3% expected and -1.0% yoy versus -0.3% previously.

GBP

Sterling fell overall on Tuesday as risk appetite remained subdued on global growth fears and disappointment at measures agreed to help Spain's banks. Economic data was positive, which contributed to ongoing strength versus the weaker euro. Industrial Production fell at a slower pace of -1.6% vs the -2.1% expected and -2.0% previous. Manufacturing Production also fell less heavily than had been forecast, dropping by -1.7% when a -1.9% had been expected although it was still a fall from the -1.5% of the previous year. Month-on-month, both stats rose well above expectations, signalling cause for some optimism. The U.K Visible Trade Balance's deficit in May narrowed to -8363m vs -9100m expected and -9709m previous. The Total Trade Balance, which unlike the Visible TB also records intangibles such as services, showed a welcome narrowing of the deficit to -2717m vs -3500m and -4088m in the month before. Finally Non-EU Trade also showed an improvement in the balance.

JPY

The yen rose on Tuesday after the release of data showing a slowdown in Chinese Exports from 15.23% to 11.6% confirmed fears that the export potential of the country was diminishing. Although bond markets in Europe steadied after the E.U announced it would be speeding up its bailout loan to Spain and benchmark yields fell back below the 7.0% the euro remained under pressure. These risk aversion factors helped support the safe-haven yen, which also benefited from data showing higher money supply indicating less chance the BOJ would increase QE. Japanese Money Stock M2+CD (yoy) in June, which tracks the money in circulation showed itself unchanged from the previous year and slightly improving on expectations, staying at 2.2% vs 2.1% estimated. Money Stock M3 actually rose by a basis point to 2.0% vs 1.9% previous. Consumer Confidence (June) showed a slight dip to 40.4 in June verus 40.7 previously and the same expected.
joaquinmonfort - 12/07/2012 04:35 PM
#25

EUR/USD: bounce possible?

Eurodollar has fallen to close to support at 1.2200 from where it will probably bounce. This is at the level of the lower line of a bearish wedge seen on the daily chart. RSI is also showing strong bullish convergence on the 4-hour chart. A reversal in the price itself is all that is needed now for confirmation. The upside target would be the 1.2325 range highs. On the other hand a decisive break below 1.2200 would continue the bearish trend down, targeting the monthly pivot at 1.2105.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
Zaretha - 12/07/2012 04:50 PM
#26

EUR/USD berbalik arah?

EUR/USD jatuh mendekati level support 1.2200 yang merupakan level dimana harga berbalik arah. Inilah level bearish yang bisa dilihat pada chart daily. RSI juga menunjukkan adanya strong bullish convergence di chart H4. Dari sini bisa memungkinkan terjadinya pola reversal. Target kenaikannya bisa berkisar di harga 1.2325. Sebaliknya, break low di bawah harga 1.2200 akan berlanjut pada trend down, yang bisa kemungkinan bisa mencapai target di monthly pivot di harga 1.2105.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 12/07/2012 06:16 PM
#27

AUD/USD: trend-line break

The aussie has broken down below a major trend-line and is continuing lower. It will probably fall even further reaching a cluster of support including the 50-day MA at around parity or 1.0005. A break below 1.0100 would be ideal for more rock-solid confirmation of further downside. Momentum has fallen since the breakout and this could indicate the possibility of a rise back up and a retouch of the underside of the trend-line at 1.0220, although after that the bearish trend is likely to resume.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
Zaretha - 12/07/2012 10:39 PM
#28

AUD/USD: trend-line break

Aussie tembus break low di bawah trend line utama dan berlanjut turun terus ke bawah. Kemungkinan harga akan turun lebih jauh lagi melewati MA 50 yang berada di kisaran 1.0005. Jika harga tembus sampai ke 1.0100, maka harga akan cenderung terus turun ke bawah. Momentum jatuh nya aussie ini juga bisa membawa kemungkinan untuk koreksi ke atas dan menyentuh kembali di harga 1.0220, meskipun trend bearish masih terus berlanjut.

Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 13/07/2012 03:56 AM
#29

FX news and analysis 12th July

USD

The dollar gained on Thursday after the release of Jobless data showed a fall in the number of people filing for unemployment benefit and decreased the chances the Fed would introduce more quantitative easing (QE). New Jobless Claims fell by 26k – much more than the 4k drop expected. Continuing Claims didn't quite achieve their target after they fell to only 3304k vs 3300k estimate, but were only slightly out. Data showing that the Import Price Index fell by more than expected: -2.7% versus the -1.8% forecast, from -1.2% previously offset some of the gains from the better-than-expected employment data. If the deflationary Import data is representative of a general softening in prices then it would increase the probability that the Federal Reserve will introduce more QE, thus weakening the dollar.

EUR

The ECB's Monthly Bulletin published on Thursday highlighted the continued risks to the downside for the euro-area whilst adding that the outlook for prices was broadly “balanced”. The main risks continued to come from unstable debt markets and rising energy prices. Overall the report was seen as negative and the euro weakened after its release. On the data front, Euro-zone Industrial Production rose (mom) by 0.6% in May when it had been expected to rise to only 0.0% from a negative print previously; yoy it fell by less than expected, although it nevertheless recorded a -2.8% print. French CPI (Jun) fell in line with expectations to 1.9% from 2.0% in 2011, and was unchanged month-on-month compared to -0.1% previous. EU Harmonised CPI rose by 2.3% which was the same as the previous year and in line with expectations, on a month-by-month basis meanwhile it rose by 0.1% versus -0.1% in May, also beating expectations of 0.0%. The German Wholesale Price Index slowed down yoy, rising by only 1.1% versus the 1.7% previously recorded, whilst month-on-month June, witnessed a drop of -1.1% when a -0.7% fall had been anticipated.

GBP

Sterling hit a 5-week low vs the dollar on Thursday after U.S jobless figures showed a sharp fall in the number of new people claiming benefits, which further lessened the chances that the Federal Reserve will introduce more QE. There was no data out directly for the pound but euro-zone debt fears weighed due to U.K exposure and trade dependency. Yesterday's announcement by Spainish PM Rajoy that he would increase the level of public spending cuts to 65bn euros actually led to weakness in the euro as cost-cutting was seen as excessive and potentially damaging to growth. Figures from the Office of Budgetary Responsibility on Thursday also hit the pound after they suggested national debt in the U.K would rise to potentially unsustainable levels in the long-term if current budget levels remained the same. There was also a loss of support for sterling's safe-haven status after several reports highlighted the risks of contagion from potential crisis scenario in the euro-zone.

JPY

The yen rose over 1.0% in some pairs on Thursday after the BOJ increased quantitative easing through expanding their asset purchase programme by 50tr yen but then took away an equal amount in available fixed rate loans, effectively leading to no net increase in stimulus. After the ECB and BOE's recent policy meetings announced more QE, investors were expecting the BOJ to follow suit, and the fact it didn't precipitated a sell-off in equities and nose-dive in risk appetite which benefited the safe-haven yen. Tomorrow could be a torrid day for the markets given the substantial data out for China, including 2nd quarter GDP, although expectations of a fall are already to a degree established. For Japan there is also data on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization although there are no consensus estimates for the data.
joaquinmonfort - 13/07/2012 05:10 PM
#30

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is still falling although it has found some support on the daily chart from the lower line of a down-sloping wedge. It is possible that it could bounce from this level although there is still no reversal set-up yet. On the 4-hour chart the pair is rising inside a down-sloping channel and it is expected to meet resistance from the upper channel line at 1.2215. If it is successfully pushed back down then it it could fall to the 1.2125; if, however, it breaks out higher than it would rally to 1.2300.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 13/07/2012 07:28 PM
#31

GBP/USD: large triangle

The GBP/USD pair has been forming a large triangle on the weekly chart which now looks close to completion. The exchange rate has broken partially below the lower triangle line, closing outside it yesterday. If it continues lower it could mark the beginning of a major trend down, targeting the 1.30s eventually, but I would want to see a break below the 1.5233 first as confirmation. In the short-term a move up to 1.5480 to re-test the trend-line is a possibility, whilst a move lower would target the monthly pivot at 1.5388.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 13/07/2012 09:52 PM
#32

GBP/JPY: downside breakout

The GBP/JPY pair has decisively broken down out of a flag pattern on the daily chart. After reaching the 122.03 lows yesterday it has rebounded, however, it will probably resume its down-trend soon until it fulfils its breakout target at around 119.83. Or a closer target would be the monthly pivot at 120.78. A less likely scenario is that it continues to rebound, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace at around 123.40.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
Zaretha - 13/07/2012 10:03 PM
#33

GBP/USD: Pola Triangle

GBP/USD telah membentuk pola triangle besar di grafik mingguan yang sekarang ini nyaris sempurna. Harga semakin jatuh ke bawah, dan jika terus berlanjut ke bawah, maka akan menjadi awal down trend utama, dengan target kisaran 1.30-an, tetapi saya ingin melihat harga break lebih dulu di 1.5233 sebagai konfirmasi pertama. Trend jangka pendek, kemungkinan harga bisa naik menuju 1.5480 untuk mengetes kembali kemungkinan jika harga cenderung naik, sementara berdasarkan monthly pivot trend masih cenderung turun hingga mencapai 1.5388.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 14/07/2012 02:17 AM
#34

FX news and analysis 13th July

USD

The dollar began Friday higher as risk appetite took a knock on continued euro-zone debt concerns following the downgrade of Italy by Moody's and a pessimistic outlook for the entire region. Chinese data showed a fall in GDP to 7.6% from 8.1% year-on-year but considering the official 7.5% target this was seen as broadly positive and indicative of a 'soft landing' for the manufacturing giant. On the data front the results of the U.S Michigan Sentiment Survey showed a fall in optimism to 72.0 from 73.2 when 73.5 was expected. Producer Prices broadly remained the same, with PPI less food and energy falling a basis point to 2.6%. Standard PPI meanwhile remained at 0.7% yoy when a fall to 0.2% had been anticipated. Month-on-month, PPI ex food and energy remained at 0.2% in line with expectations, whilst standard PPI rose to 0.1% when a fall to -0.4% had been anticipated.

EUR

After Moody's downgrade of Italy's credit rating to just above junk yesterday expectations were pitched low for the sale of Italian 3,7,10 and 11-year bonds today (Friday). In the end, however, it was successful after the the maximum target of 3.5bn of new 3-year bonds was sold. Yield also fell to 4.65% compared to 5.30% in a similar auction in mid-June. The target of 1.75bn of longer-dated bonds were also sold despite the yield rising slightly. Nevertheless the single currency sold-off steeply in the early part of the day as the negative report from Moody's which accompanied the Italy downgrade hit risk appetite, and it was not until the afternoon that it rebounded. Other data showed no-change in Italian CPI, with the headline figure remaining at 3.6% - the same as in 2011.

GBP

Sterling rebounded on Friday after the BOE announced measures which reduced the probability that it would increase its QE soon and indicated that the central bank might be nearing the end of its current easing cycle. It announced it had launched a new lending programme to boost private sector credit by 80bn pounds. With CPI out next Tuesday there was speculation that it might indicate more price stickiness further reducing the likelihood of the BOE increasing QE. Even though the consensus expectations are for headline CPI to remain the same at 2.8% speculation of a higher print was considerable. Today's U.S PPI data stayed more or less the same, however, and concerns, at least in the short term, appear overdone. There are indications, however, that a new bull trend might be about to start in commodities, and if this is the case inflation will pick up over the next quarter.

JPY

The yen fell versus riskier currencies on Friday but rose versus the dollar after risk appetite reversed and began climbing. A combination of factors led to the boost in sentiment, including a better-than-expected Italian bond sale, which managed to shrug off yesterday's downgrade, the announcement by the BOE of measures which reduced the likelihood of it increasing QE and Chinese data which supported the notion that the country's economy might be heading for a soft rather than a hard landing. Against the dollar the yen fared slightly better after Michigan Confidence contracted and Producer Prices showed a slight 1 basis point fall. Data out for the yen was on the whole poor with Industrial Production showing a 6.0% rise in yoy in May vs 6.2% in 2011, and mom of -3.4% vs -3.1% previous. Capacity Utilization mom also in May showed a marked fall of -2.2% vs -0.6% in April.
Zaretha - 16/07/2012 10:32 AM
#35

Selamat pagi gan....semoga hari ini trading nya ijo-ijo semua...iloveindonesias


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 16/07/2012 05:07 PM
#36

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart with neckline currently threatened. My preference is for break and more downside with the target for the move at 1.2170 and the weekly pivot at 1.2160 – so perhaps 1.2165; a break below the 76.4% retrace of the previous rally at 1.2185 would be a major blow to bullish hopes. The possibility of another leg higher to 1.2305 is also quite strong with a break above 1.2243 issuing a strong continuation signal higher.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 16/07/2012 06:55 PM
#37

AUD/USD: technical analysis

The aussie has risen and re-touched the trend-line which it broke out of last week. Further resistance from the 100-day MA has also helped depress prices. Nevertheless, we have seen a recovery of more than 76.4% of the previous rally which is very bullish and it only requires a decisive break above 1.0250 to add fresh impetus to the rally and target the 1.0330 highs. A move below 1.0150 on the other hand could open the door to a continuation down to 1.0100 or even 1.0150 crystallizing the target from the original break-down.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 17/07/2012 04:39 PM
#38

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is rising within a down-sloping channel. It will probably reach the upper channel line at 1.2360. The target for the double bottom and the monthly pivot, however, lie slightly higher at 1.2380 – another possible target. The key reversal on Friday indicates the possibility of a trend-reversal and start of a new up-trend. Alternatively it is possible the rally will pull-back to support from a cluster of MA's and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2225.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 17/07/2012 06:04 PM
#39

USD/JPY: downside possible

The yen has been correcting back and it has now reached a 61.8% Fibonacci of the previous move. My preference is for more downside given the incomplete wave sequence down from the March highs. A break below the 76.4% Fibonacci line at 78.36 would see the bears back in control and an eventual target set at the 77.66 lows. Alternatively a rally would see a move up to the cluster of resistance at 79.45, before a possible continuation to the 80.60 highs.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 17/07/2012 07:44 PM
#40

GBP/USD: technical analysis

The GBP/USD has been unfolding lower in an expanding triangle visible on the daily chart. The recent up-leg has encountered resistance from the upper boundary line at the current 1.5645 highs. From here there is a possibility of a pull-back to 1.5615. A decisive break below 1.5590 would be required to erode the bullish position, with downside target at 1.5450. The pair could also push higher, with a move above 1.5721 undermining bearish bets and targeting 1.5750 first and then 1.5900.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
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