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joaquinmonfort - 29/08/2012 07:16 PM
#101
EUR/JPY: box pattern
There is a box consolidation on the hourly chart with upside potential. A decisive break above the 98.83 spike high could see a breakout followed by a probable rise up to the upper channel line at 99.75. The other alternative is that the exchange rate is rebuffed by the top of the range and moves back down to the 97.80 range lows, with a move below 98.37 acting as confirmation.


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Zaretha - 30/08/2012 11:33 AM
#102

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Forex4you trading signals and analysis
joaquinmonfort - 30/08/2012 04:48 PM
#103
EUR/USD: trend still up
The EUR/USD pair is meandering without much direction at the moment. The deadening volume may be put down to a substantial portion of the market standing aside in anticipation of Jackson Hole. Nevertheless, the pair is still in an upward short-term trend, albeit within a larger downward longer-term trend, and it will probably continue since there are no signs of reversal. The next upside target would be at the upper channel line at 1.2635 but ultimately I see the major multi-month trend-line at 1.2685 within reach, and providing a natural endpoint for the move.


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joaquinmonfort - 30/08/2012 07:53 PM
#104
GBP/USD: upside potential
The GBP/USD is consolidating with a bias to the upside. The is a possibility that there is still a missing wave higher which could re-test the 1.5909 highs, with a break above the 1.5855 level providing some bullish confirmation. Alternatively, the top of a head and shoulders may have formed on the hourly chart with a neckline at 1.5800, which if broken could lead to a possible move down to 1.5742 and the 100-day MA.


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joaquinmonfort - 30/08/2012 11:40 PM
#105
GBP/JPY: technical analysis
The larger trend remains down. The daily chart looks more bullish with a possible incomplete final wave poised to go higher, perhaps to 125.40; but on the hourly chart there is a double top and a bearish shooting star indicates a probable move down, with support at 123.75 targeted.


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joaquinmonfort - 31/08/2012 05:26 PM
#106
EUR/USD: triangle forming
Eurodollar is forming a triangle with the exchange rate currently rising in an Elliot 'D' wave, targeting the upper boundary at 1.2555. After that it will probably fall back down to the lower boundary at 1.2480 as wave 'E' unfolds. A breakout higher, however, would lead to a move up to the previous multi-year trend-line at 1.2635. After that it may roll-over and continue the down-trend. A downside breakout from the triangle could reach support from the 50-day MA at 1.2365.


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joaquinmonfort - 31/08/2012 07:12 PM
#107
EUR/JPY: consolidation range
The current rally from the late July lows looks more corrective in style and will probably roll-over and renew its down-trend soon. The pair has been range-bound all week in anticipation of Jackson Hole but the waves indicate there is a strong chance of a downside break, with a move out of the range at at 97.90 confirming such a possibility and targeting 97.15. A break higher, however, is also possible with a move above the 99.18 highs confirming a rally to possibly around the 100.00 mark.


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joaquinmonfort - 03/09/2012 05:25 PM
#108
EUR/USD: technical analysis
Eurodollar is stuck in a range. There is the possibility of a breakout higher and a move to the top of the channel at 1.2670ish, however the 100-day MA is resisting further gains, and a decisive move above 1.2590 would be required to reach there. There is also the possibility of move down, with a breakdown, signalled by a move below 1.2555, targeting support at 1.2505.


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joaquinmonfort - 03/09/2012 07:52 PM
#109
Gold: breakout
Gold has broken through a major trend-line and rallied strongly. The next few days will be crucial in establishing the new trend higher. I see 1722 as an initial target, where there is resistance from a clustering of both weekly and monthly pivots. Alternatively it is possibly the break may have been false and the price might continue pulling back, with support initially kicking in at the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1675 and then 1653.


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joaquinmonfort - 03/09/2012 09:54 PM
#110
EUR/GBP: possible topping pattern
The EUR/GBP pair has continued rising higher and re-touched the June highs. Whilst it has broken out of a channel it is still encompassed by the broader down-trend. The wave formation higher appears complete with the final move up – a 5th wave – now finished after matching the highs. The current activity with its overlapping waves is characteristic of topping formations and indicates a possible move lower on the horizon, with a probable initial fall to the 50% Fib and trend-line at 0.7855, with confirmation coming from a move below 0.7900.


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joaquinmonfort - 04/09/2012 06:15 PM
#111
EUR/USD: technical analysis
The EUR/USD is still in a counter-trend rally. It is unlikely to be the start of a new trend higher and therefore will probably roll-over. Currently there is a possibility the pair could be starting a move down to 1.2550. If it goes below there it would constitute a break of the neckline of a double top pattern and target 1.2475. If the trend continues tracking higher, however, it could also reach resistance from the upper channel line at 1.2650.


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joaquinmonfort - 04/09/2012 08:52 PM
#112
GBP/USD: technical analysis
GBP/USD is showing a possible double-top pattern at the highs which is bearish – despite the recent triangle breakout higher. Unfortunately there has not been much follow-through since the break and so I am not as bullish as before. A breach of the lows at 1.5754 would trigger the downside target of 1.5595. The most recent rally and breakout could be labelled an Elliot wave 'E' and mean that the triangle is still completing and will actually roll-over and break lower eventually. Alternatively further upside is capped by the monthly pivot at 1.6020.


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joaquinmonfort - 05/09/2012 06:19 PM
#113
EUR/USD: technical analysis
Eurodollar has pushed lower, breaking down though the neckline of the double top and almost reaching the profit target at 1.2475. Now it has rebounded and begun moving higher again. This is probably a counter-trend move, or Elliot wave 4 of the move down and will probably move up to the 1.2555/60 level where clustered resistance should turn it back lower again – although wait for confirmation - and it may then reach the 1.2475 level of the lower border of the channel.


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joaquinmonfort - 05/09/2012 09:11 PM
#114
Gold: technical analysis
We may have a head and shoulders pattern completing on the hourly chart at the highs. This could possibly break below the neckline at 1688 triggering a strong move lower, perhaps to around 1675 where it will meet support from both the weekly pivot and the 38.2% Fibonacci line. A move above 1694, however, would negate the bearish outlook, with 1722 then in focus.


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joaquinmonfort - 05/09/2012 11:38 PM
#115
AUD/USD: technical analysis
The aussie is still falling with no signs of exhaustion or reversal yet. It pierced below heavy resistance today from the 100-day MA at 1.0205 and the monthly and weekly pivot at the same level. Right now its trading at 1.0185 and its possible that a break below the day's lows at 1.0166 could lead to fresh selling down to 1.0098 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Meanwhile the band of resistance overhead caps upside and it seems unlikely to rise above 1.0220.


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joaquinmonfort - 06/09/2012 05:17 PM
#116
EUR/USD: meeting resistance
Eurodollar has reached a strong level of resistance at the 1.2625 mark where price has been repulsed several times before. A shooting star candlestick has already formed on the hourly chart and if a move lower evolves then it will probably reach support from moving averages at 1.2565. A move to the bottom of the range at 1.2510 is also possible. Another possibility is a move higher to the top of the channel at 1.2650 – or even an upside breakout given the volatile news potential of the day.


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joaquinmonfort - 07/09/2012 05:43 PM
#117
EUR/USD: channel resistance
Eurodollar has moved up to the upper channel line and hit resistance. It has also finished an A-B-C formation and therefore it will probably fall from here, down to perhaps support at 1.2625, although there are no reversal signs from price yet. The other alternative is a move higher, however , this would constitute a breakout from the channel and is a little less likely. A strong move above 1.2695 or so might signal such a breakout with the monthly pivot at 1.2760 then in sight.


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joaquinmonfort - 07/09/2012 07:50 PM
#118
GBP/USD: technical analysis
Cable has started to show signs of possible weakness. This morning it has started to fall after positing a shooting start on the 4-hour chart. Momentum is diverging widely with price on the daily supporting the bearish outlook, although the target from the triangle breakout at 1.6120 would seem to suggest there was still higher to go. Initially, therefore I would remain cautious: the move may end at the tough support at 1.5915 and it would require a break below 1.5900 for a more bearish outlook.


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joaquinmonfort - 10/09/2012 05:36 PM
#119
EUR/USD: technical analysis
Eurodollar has stalled a little this morning. The current level lies close to the monthly pivot, which could mean we are at a reversal point and the exchange rate could roll over here. A break back down below 1.2761 would give a strong confirmation signal, with 1.2700 then in sight. A move above 1.2803, however, could see it push higher to the major multi-month trend-line at 1.2900 where it will probably stop because of resistance.


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joaquinmonfort - 10/09/2012 07:28 PM
#120
Gold: pull-back possible
It is possible that Gold may retrace some of its recent rally and traders should prepare themselves for a small pull-back, perhaps to the 1722 monthly pivot level. Price has satisfied the profit target for the small triangle breakout which occurred on August 21st , momentum is signalling overbought and the dollar looks poised to strengthen. Eventually however, prices should resume rallying given the recent breakout from the larger multi-month triangle, targeting first 1757 but ultimately the old highs at 1897.


Forex4you trading signals and analysis
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