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bkkumala - 23/05/2008 11:02 PM
#1
OPTION Trading - Sharing -Artikel- tips- Info ( sementara )
karena lama and gak tau apa bisa balik lagi
kita lanjutkan saja share-discuss optionnya

silahkan dimulai lagi

The show must go on
bkkumala - 23/05/2008 11:07 PM
#2

JRJC yg minggu kemaren dijual 1 leg straddle nya , hari ini leq yg satu nya lg loss nya impas... ( padahal maren minus $ 100 lebih )

tapi masih belum earning

tunggu aja deh .. bbrp hari lg , secara ini dah insurance ticket..
tyraelx - 23/05/2008 11:49 PM
#3

ada yg punya panduan2 untuk bermain option buat pemula?
ANCOLL - 23/05/2008 11:55 PM
#4

akhirnya threadnya hidup kembali,
ikutan absen dulu deh.. D
Lim Ricky - 24/05/2008 01:46 AM
#5

Akhirnya thread ini hidup lagiiiD

Mudah2an AAPL hr ini tanda2 rebound beneran...
bro Ancoll,gmana kbr stradlle aapl-nya?
metalyana2 - 24/05/2008 08:00 AM
#6

parah nih ya, semua postingan yang sangat berguna jadi ilang semua, klau mau ngesave juga susah kan, harusnya ada backup dari kaskus

dan satu lagi... options di sticky dong....please .....
metalyana2 - 24/05/2008 08:04 AM
#7

Quote:
Original Posted By tyraelx
ada yg punya panduan2 untuk bermain option buat pemula?


coba beli bukunya putut, mega options, itu lumayan buat pemula...
bkkumala - 24/05/2008 10:31 AM
#8

Greeksman:

Wow, whatever bulls have made eventually have to be returned to the market. The bears took complete control this week. INDU dropped by 3.9%. COMPQ was down by 3.3%. SPX dropped by 3.5% and RUT dropped by 2.3%. From a sector rotation perspective, something I like from Conrad last week in Wealth Academy, the drop this week was not surprising to me at all. RUT is still the strongest amongst the Big Four and thus was not the worst performer amongst them. Go figure.

The Big Fou remained below 200 SMA respectively. VIX found the support and rebound, sending the indices down in this manner. The volume this week was up on the extremely down day. NYSE registered two consecutive distribution days and NASQ had a distribution day too. The distribution day on Thurs for both NYSE and NASQ was quite ugly.

Of course the big news this week is again oil. Oil registered a record high of $135.09 and closed at $131.82 this week. When I was at WAT on Friday, Conrad and his students discussed where the oil could possibly go. The number looks big but it is no big deal to me. Why? Because I don't care. What you can do is to get this number by drawing some Fibo extension. If you don't know how to do it, then it is something you must learn. The number at XXOP level is an interesting number.

Now, the financial sector is back to limelight after FOMC minutes were released on Wed section. Stocks did not like the minutes because it signals the end of the rate cut.

"...risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation... [and that] several members noted it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook."

Inflation pressure has revived and the market obviously did not like the news. If the market is still expecting a rate cut but the Fed minutes was a disapointment, bad news in short-term right? This signals that the interest rate could have found a bottom and Fed won't be cutting interest rate at least for the time being because this will just mean pushing inflation rate up where Fed has been trying hard to control the inflation rate.

Rising oil prices hurt consumer? It depends on how you see it. AMR announced that it would be cutting 11 to 12% capacity and instituting a $15 fee for the first checked bad on its flights to combat rising oil prices. F announced a cut in production of full-size SUVs and trucks in the US because the customers demand would likely be shifted to more fuel efficient vehicles. So, corporations are changing their strategies as a result of rising oil prices. It does not mean consumers must suffer. Again, it depends on how you see it.

HD and LOW issued cautious outlook but to me, it is not new. Why? The market has already expected a not-so-good outlook. The reaction on these stocks is short-term in my opinion.

Existing home sales in April fell 1% from March to annualised rate of 4.89m units. In fact, it is better than expected, and is important. Why? the market can only recover by taking the first step of registering a slowing rate of decline. Yes, there is still a decline but at a reducing rate. Is the worst over?

Overall, the short-term speculators took opportunity to push the market down because the economic data were not disappointing. Remember the market in the short-term is irrational and if you use logic to read the market, it won't work at all.

From a sector perspective, the energy sector still outperformed the rest. The financial sector plummeted 6.1% this week. Is the worst over yet or not for financial sector. The technical outlook is at this point a mess. The transports sector was another suffering party, dragged down by AMR and surge in oil price. So, the Dow Jones Transportation Average declined 4.2% and from its Monday high, 7.1%.

So, from a sector rotation perspective, I will patiently wait for entry signal for housing market and financial market. I have no established position at this point. Wait for the technical outlook. I won't be chasing for oil stocks aggressively because it has gone up so much and so fast. Patience and trade defensively is something I learnt so much from Conrad. And yes, it is perfectly fine not to trade when there is simply just one reason to trade.

OASIS is less than 2 weeks to go. I am looking forward to it.
ClinkZ - 24/05/2008 10:44 AM
#9

absen dolo ah malu:
bkkumala - 24/05/2008 11:06 AM
#10

Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 23

This has been an interesting week for the market. Monday, the market easily ran up to a major resistance level at SPY 144. That is a five-year up trend line that was broken in January, the 200-day moving average and a horizontal resistance level that dates back over a year. By late afternoon, sellers took profits and Monday’s breakout attempt failed. That reversal paved the way for weakness the rest of the week.

Tuesday morning, the PPI came in hotter than expected and the market quickly pulled back from the resistance level. Wednesday, dismal retail results and higher oil prices put early pressure on the market. In the afternoon, the FOMC minutes were released and that’s when the wheels fell off. The Fed lowered GDP estimates for the year, they increased their inflation expectations, they raised their unemployment forecast and they made it clear that the rate cuts have ended. By late afternoon, the market was in a full-blown decline.

Yesterday, the market held on to modest gains as oil pulled back. Unfortunately, oil is trading higher today and the market is down. The path of least resistance is lower and light trading could exaggerate the move.

As you can see in today’s chart, firm resistance has been established. Big down days that occur near relative highs are a warning sign. The first shot was fired two weeks ago and I have referenced it frequently. If the SPY 138 level fails, the SPY 144 resistance level will hold throughout the summer.

Given the Fed’s revisions, I would expect weakness in next week’s economic numbers. They include new home sales, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, the PCE deflator, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. The earnings will be dominated by retail and Sears and Costco are to the big names that will post results.

Two months ago we were worried about a full-blown financial collapse. Surprisingly, the market rallied to within 7% of last year’s highs. Since October, food and energy prices have spiked. I just read a report that 55% of Americans discretionary spending is being allocated to essentials. Unemployment has climbed and corporate profits have slowed in the last 8 months as well. If I read the Fed’s statements correctly, interest rates will start to climb this fall. In June and July we will have another huge round of mortgage resets and I believe the Fed will wait to see how that pans out. All of these factors will keep the SPY 144 level in tact this summer.

On the flipside, if you strip out financial stocks, the earnings growth rate has been pretty decent. Companies with a global footprint are making money internationally. If we can get some relief from energy prices, the market will respond. In the chart you can see a horizontal support level that has been drawn at SPY 132. That was the low from last March and August. Once the market rallied from the double bottom in March, it found support at this level. There were two large up gaps with aggressive buying at this level and I believe the SPY 132 level will hold.

My conclusion is that we will be range bound. As you know I have been selling call spreads on financials and retail/restaurant stocks. Those trades are working out well and as long as you stay short consumer related stocks that are reliant on US revenues, you will fare well. I am happy to see commodity stocks pull back. They are overbought and the speculative “fluff” needs to be chased out. When these stocks find a bottom, they will present an excellent buying opportunity. The fundamentals have not changed and demand continues to outpace supply.

There will be excellent trading opportunities on both sides of the market, but don’t expect fast profits the summer. We are going to fall into a trading range until we have clarity from the financials and economy stability.

For today, I would continue to sell call spreads on financials, retail and restaurants. The market momentum favors the downside and we have broken below SPY 138. Trading will pick up toward the end of next week and the market will take its direction from the economic releases and oil prices.
digimond - 24/05/2008 11:10 AM
#11

VISA gmana yach ke depannya??? ada yang tau?? kok turun trus yach????
bkkumala - 24/05/2008 11:19 AM
#12

@^
digimond

Dow minggu kemarin sebagai indikator index sedang dalam pressure karena oil price dan hasil FOMC yg kurang disukai market.

V juga mulai turun dibawah MA15 nya ... boleh dibilang sebagai lampu kuning , kalo tembus trus bisa terjun seperti kemaren , sudah berada di luar Bolinger Band nya dan tembus Darvas box bawah...
metalyana2 - 24/05/2008 02:40 PM
#13

Quote:
Original Posted By digimond
VISA gmana yach ke depannya??? ada yang tau?? kok turun trus yach????

kalau BK bedasarkan TA, kalau gw lihatnya, visa dari IPO udah terlalu tinggi naiknya, kalau sekarang turun ya, karena sebagian yang megang sahamnya udah mulai take profit.. begityu....
ahnurdin - 24/05/2008 07:57 PM
#14

Quote:
Original Posted By digimond
VISA gmana yach ke depannya??? ada yang tau?? kok turun trus yach????


Saya juga masih nyamgkut di Visa. Kayaknya harus jual rugi nih...
ahnurdin - 24/05/2008 08:02 PM
#15

Quote:
Original Posted By bkkumala
Posted by Pete Stolcers on May 23

.......
Given the Fed’s revisions, I would expect weakness in next week’s economic numbers. They include new home sales, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, the PCE deflator, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. The earnings will be dominated by retail and Sears and Costco are to the big names that will post results.
.......

My conclusion is that we will be range bound. As you know I have been selling call spreads on financials and retail/restaurant stocks. Those trades are working out well and as long as you stay short consumer related stocks that are reliant on US revenues, you will fare well. I am happy to see commodity stocks pull back. They are overbought and the speculative “fluff” needs to be chased out. When these stocks find a bottom, they will present an excellent buying opportunity. The fundamentals have not changed and demand continues to outpace supply.

There will be excellent trading opportunities on both sides of the market, but don’t expect fast profits the summer. We are going to fall into a trading range until we have clarity from the financials and economy stability.
.........


minggu depan bear lagi ????
bkkumala - 24/05/2008 09:05 PM
#16

@ atas
saya pribadi ngak bilang bear ya...

saya lebih prefer... ke contrarian..

Market pressure is not as clear as it's seen...


buat yg baru pada terjun di option , beware sama e-mail-email scam dr luar negeri yg kasih kita Free alert or something like that..

biasa nya mereka malah mau unload barang mereka ..

jadi kelihatannya naek , padahal yg beli org-org yg nerima alert tsb.
and gak berapa lama kemudian.. . hasilnya bisa dilihat

good luck
bkkumala - 26/05/2008 09:31 AM
#17

hari ini istirahat dulu... libur di sana nya

Memorial Day ..
metalyana2 - 26/05/2008 09:46 AM
#18

libur ya...? asyik dong..
kalau main options harus punya kalendar amerika nih, biar tahu liburnya kapan aja...
digimond - 26/05/2008 09:53 AM
#19

kalo untuk long term visa gmana?? misal 6 bln lagi?? ada kemungkinan rebound ga???
masnabil - 26/05/2008 10:11 AM
#20

Kok libur mulu amrik nih..
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Home > CASCISCUS > BUSINESS BOARD > Forex/Option/Saham dan Derivatifnya > Options > OPTION Trading - Sharing -Artikel- tips- Info ( sementara )